The Common Agricultural Policy remains a major budget item within the EU. Although any predictions over the new shape it will assume in 2013 are necessarily imprecise, consider three scenarios that reflect varying degrees of attention to past entitlements, environmental objectives, and organic food production goals.
Here are the provocative findings from the analysis of Valentin Zahrnt:
Table 1. Scenarios for the distribution of CAP payments after 2013
Source: ECIPE study; 2015 data for Bulgaria and Romania
The results show that several traditional defenders of the CAP are
indeed likely to lose from reform – France, Greece, Ireland, and
Belgium. Other countries that defend the status quo would –
surprisingly – gain from reform. This is especially striking in the
case of Spain, which would reap the greatest absolute gains of all
member states. Finland would get the third highest increase under all
scenarios just after Sweden and Latvia. For both countries, the
benefits of bolder reform would be greater. To a lesser extent, this
also applies to reform-averse Portugal and Austria.