A little about me

• Curriculum vita
• A picture my friend took
• Summer Economics Fellows Program for Women and Under-Represented Minorities
• The homepage for my newspaper columns
• Links that I find useful

	My latest book, EViews Illustrated, is available from Quantitative Micro Software. Excerpts appear at http://eviews.com/illustrated/Illustrated.html

UW Internal Research Storage

Forward-Looking Stock Market

Working papers

At the Economics Department's working paper site, you'll find text abstracts and papers in Adobe pdf format. Here are some of mine.

• "The Changing Relation Between the Canadian and U.S. Yield Curves," (with Kathlyn Lucia, Stephanie Price, and Edwin Wong)
• "Least Squares, Two-Stage," International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd ed. , MacMillan, 2008.
• "Multicollinearity," International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd ed., MacMillan, 2008.
• "Are Consumers Forward-Looking?"
• "The Yield Curve through Time and Across Maturities," (with Kwok Ping Tsang).
• "Estimation of Markov Regime-Switching Regression Models with Endogenous Switching" (with Chang-Jin Kim and Jeremy Piger), Journal of Econometrics, Volume 143, Issue 2, April 2008.
• "Spurious Inference in the GARCH(1,1) Model When It Is Weakly Identified" (with Jun Ma and Charles Nelson). The final version appeared in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Volume 11, Issue 1, 2007.
• "Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models with an Application to U.S. Recessions," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Volume 26, Number 1, January 2008.
• "The Phillips Curve: Forward-Looking Behavior and the Inflation Premium" (with Erika Gulyás).
• "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach" (with Arabinda Basistha), forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics.
• "Review of Econometric Theory and Methods." The final version appeared in Econometric Theory, Vol. 21, 2005.
• "The Zero-Information-Limit Condition and Spurious Inference in Weakly Identified Models" (with Charles Nelson). The final version appeared in Journal of Econometrics, Volume 138, Issue 1, pp. 47-62, May 2007.
• "A Markov Switching Model of Congressional Partisan Regimes" (with Bryan Jones and Chang-Jin Kim).
• "Why Were Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Smaller in the 1990s?" (with Arabinda Basistha). The final version appears the Journal of Applied Econometrics, May/June 2004.
• "The Dynamic Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycle" (with Chang-Jin Kim and Jeremy Piger), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 39, Issue 1, February 2007.
• "Partial Adjustment As Optimal Response in a Dynamic Brainard Model"
• "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: A Marital Bargaining Approach" (with Shelly Lundberg and Steven Stillman). The final version appears in the Journal of Public Economics, May 2003.
• "Improved Inference in Weakly Identified Instrumental Variables Regression" (with Charles Nelson and Eric Zivot), forthcoming in Frontiers of Analysis and Applied Research: Essays in Honor of Peter C.B. Phillips, Cambridge University Press.
• "Information and Racial Exclusion" (with Shelly Lundberg), forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics.
•  "Inequality and Race: Models and Policy" (with Shelly Lundberg) is available online. The final version appears in Meritocracy and Economic Inequality, Arrow, Bowles, and Durlauf eds., Princeton University Press, 2000.
•  Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments (with Charles Nelson and Eric Zivot) is available on-line. The final version is in the International Economic Review, November 1998.
•  "Growth States and Shocks"  is available online. The final version is in the Journal of Economic Growth, September 1998.

Some less technical stuff

• Seattle Times op-ed on the chain rule.
• Discrimination and Resolution in the Economics Job Market – A Real Life Story
• Survey of UW Economics Dissertations
• Seattle Times op-ed piece after 9/11
• Seattle Post-Intelligencer op-ed piece after 9/11

Seattle School Assignments

Op-Ed Article in the Seattle Times and A Map of Seattle by Race